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Tuesday, February 02, 2016

2016 Presidential Race Begins with Iowa


The 2016 Presidential Race has officially started with the first primary elections (Iowa calls it a caucus) starting in Iowa on February 1. So many changes since my last analysis on October 28. Just like many polls, pundits, and analysts made mistakes back in October, so did I. Among my worst errors:

* Hillary Clinton would easily secure the Democratic nomination.
* Ben Carson would be the toughest competitor against GOP front runner Donald Trump.

With the Iowa caucus results in, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are pretty much tied. Hillary barely beats Bernie by a hair by 0.3 points (49.9% to 49.6%). As solid and invincible as Hillary seemed in the past, Bernie continued to be faithful, diligent, and persistent. Hillary Clinton's old problems did not just fade away, her problems only compounded into worsening problems. Her private email server as Secretary of State worsened, as the FBI and DOJ launched investigations, only to find she stored and mishandled top secret classified emails on her unsecured private email server. Then there are the rise of terrorist groups and an ever worsening situation in the Middle East which she could not contain, and unending situations of unscrupulous campaign donations and finances. What formerly seemed like a sure Democratic nomination is now a tossup that will go late in the primary season, like April or after, to see who wins the Democratic nomination.

The winners of the Republican party are Ted Cruz (28% votes, 8 delegates), Donald Trump (24% votes, 7 delegates), and Marco Rubio (23% votes, 7 delegates). Everyone else received less than 10% percent of votes, and if any of those GOP candidates fail to make it in the top 3 in the coming few weeks, their campaign is dead.

The surprises on the Republican side was that Ted Cruz won first place, and Marco Rubio came in a strong third place, almost tying with Trump. Recent polls just a few days ago showed Trump was barely leading Cruz by about 3 or 4 points. I am convinced it has to do with Trump's miscalculation to skip the GOP Presidential debate in Iowa, hosted by Fox News, that was held just a few days away from the Iowa Caucus date. Trump's arrogance got to him, and enough Iowan voters viewed Trump's absence from the debate as a sign of snobbish arrogance which turned off enough voters and switch to Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or others who showed diligence by making the effort to attend the debate and humbly reach out to the voters. Also, the Fox News debate was so close to the Iowa Caucus, just a few days away, that polls didn't have enough time to pick up the changed reactions of the Iowan voters.

Nevertheless, Donald Trump seemed to learn his lesson when he gave his speech that night, after he realized he came in second place. Trump still has a strong standing, with 7 delegate votes, just one vote behind Ted Cruz, and there are 49 more states to go in this long primary election.

What seemed like a sure Trump vs Clinton election is now a likely Trump vs Clinton or Sanders election. The next primary is February 9 in New Hampshire.

Saturday, December 05, 2015

Update on Steve Sailer


I've been getting criticism that my blog has little to do with Steve Sailer, just a rambling on politics. Yes, those critics have a point. I've covered Steve Sailer more extensively before 2008, but in recent years it's been more focused on Steve Sailer's favorite right-wing political party and how to counter them. Seven years ago or more makes a big difference, so I'll be posting and exposing Steve Sailer and his group more often. I'll continue to analyze his fallacies and lies in race, crime, and politics as well, though time may be constrained.

To start off, take a look on Steve Sailer's non-credentials in science and journalism. Also, here is an updated picture of him in his late 50s (He was born in December 20, 1958), which is now part of this blog header. You can see Steve Sailer is old and decaying, a living fossil ready to collect Social Security soon. The previous picture of the red-headed Steve Sailer was him in his late 30s, so that does no justice to falsely portray him as a young guy. Keep in mind his health and physical stature have been troubled since he was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma in 1996. He was treated a year after and has been in remission since then.

Steve Sailer's non-credentials in science and journalism

Steve Sailer has some writing skills, but what are his credentials in the field of science or journalism? Despite his fancy rhetoric, Steve Sailer is not a doctor, or scientist, or professor. He is not even a reputable journalist. These are his credentials.

1980 - Undergraduate degree from Rice University in economics, history, and management.

1982 - MBA from UCLA in 1982, concentrating in finance and marketing.

Worked for a small marketing company doing statistical analysis in the 1980s.

Wrote sporadic articles for the National Review, a far right-wing magazine, from 1994 to 1998.

Journalist for the United Press International (UPI) from 2000 to 2003. During this time UPI had the worst reputation ever for their shoddy journalism and right-wing bias, which is the only kind of job Steve can find.

Wrote sporadic articles for The American Conservative, another far right-wing magazine.

Writer for VDare and Taki Magazine, even further right-wing, white supremacist sites.

Steve Sailer never accomplished anything in the field of science or journalism. He has no credentials working in any reputable or mainstream journalist or media company. Steve Sailer is nothing more than a freelance writer, desperately writing for far right-wing and white supremacist pseudo-journalist sites. He only makes a little more than a minimum wage payout from the few dollars he receives from VDare and Taki, and the spare change donations from his readers he constantly needs to panhandle from his blog. He's so poor he has to live with his adoptive father in Los Angeles, because he cannot support himself and his family.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

2015 Election Analysis

Since the Presidential and Congressional elections are held on even years, the odd year elections like 2015 are primarily for state level politicians, such as state governor and legislature seats. While the odd year elections have relatively smaller turnout and press coverage than the even year elections, the odd year elections are still very important that affects millions of Americans across the nation. Since the deadlocks and checks and balances in Congress and the White House make it almost impossible to get anything accomplished at the federal level, it is far more realistic to look to the state and local levels to get anything done.

In short summary, the Republicans solidly won the 2015 elections. Not a thorough domination like 2014, but a solid win for the Republicans. State governor seats for Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi were up for election in 2015. Republican incumbents in Louisiana and Mississippi easily won re-election.

The Kentucky governor seat was the hot seat every analyst was watching. Democrat Governor Steve Beshear was elected back in 2007 in Kentucky, a solidly Republican state. Steve Beshear reach his second term limit in 2015, so two new candidates were running for the Kentucky governor's seat. They were vast opposites, Democrat Jack Conway would continue Gov. Beshear's liberal policies, while Republican Matt Bevin was opposed to Obamacare and promised to take down Kentucky's state version of Obamacare if elected. Polls throughout the campaign showed a tossup and close call, but the final election day results showed Republican Matt Bevin solidly won 53% to 44%.

In purple swing state Virginia, Democrats invested heavily to win the majority of the Virginia state senate, but failed to do so. Democrats could not win state legislature seats to any significant degree. This is after the Democrats lost so many state legislatures across the nation since Obama came into power in 2009.

This wiki chart (Historical party strength) shows Democratic control of state governors and legislatures are at an all time low in many decades, with the decline starting around 2010.

In other election results around the nation, Houston TX voters had a referendum vote to secure non-discrimination protections for gay and transgender people. It failed by a 2-to-1 margin. In a rare bright light for the Democrats in 2015, Democrats won all three open seats up for election on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.

While the Democrats have a small lead at the federal level with the President's seat, we have to look at the whole picture, which includes the state governor seats and legislatures. The state level is even more important than the federal level, because that is where Americans can realistically expect to get any legislation done, not with the deadlocks in Congress and the White House. So looking at the whole picture at the federal and state levels, the Republicans have a small lead.

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

President Obama Skewers GOP Candidates Who 'Can't Handle A Bunch Of CNBC Moderators'

Politics is always intense and hard hitting, especially when you are running for President. There's also comedy and hypocrisy involved.

In the latest examples of comedy and hypocrisy, President Obama mocks the Republican Presidential candidates who complained the CNBC moderators were asking them tough questions last debate.


President Obama Skewers GOP Candidates Who 'Can't Handle A Bunch Of CNBC Moderators'
President Barack Obama took shots at the Republican presidential candidates who have accused him of being weak on foreign policy, telling supporters on Monday that the GOP’s criticisms are unfounded because they “can’t handle a bunch of CNBC moderators,” referencing their outrage over last week’s CNBC Republican debate."Let me tell you, if you can’t handle those guys, then I don’t think the Chinese and the Russians are going to be too worried," he said at a Democratic fundraiser in New York.
And this was after CNBC decided to limit the debate to 2 hours, when the GOP candidates were complaining that 3 hours was too long in the other debates. Well, you need more time in a debate to cover so many more candidates (at least 10 for the GOP), and even though CNBC didn't host those previous 3 hour Republican debates, they met the GOP candidates' demands.
Common sense would tell you that with such limited time to cover so many candidates, CNBC would logically present more thought provoking questions. Now the Republicans are whining about this again. Are they going to whine again when dealing with leaders of countries like China, Russia, or the world? Are they going to whine again when the heat picks up with domestic issues in the U.S.? You bet they'll whine, cry, and throw tantrums.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Presidential Race Analysis - October 28, 2015

What's going on with the Presidential Race of 2016 so far? It will constantly change and many surprises are sure to come up. The Democrats had their first Presidential nominee debate on October 13 and the Republicans already had two debates, with their third one coming up this night of October 28. Also, how will the leading candidates fare when the election comes up in just 12 months, and the race really gets rolling in a mere 8 months for the selected nominees?


Democrats

Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Presidential nominee running in 2016. Bernie Sanders was a distant second place in the polls, and after the Democratic debate on October 13, Hillary strengthened her lead. She didn't do great, but okay. However, there were just four other candidates who all were disappointing, so Hillary did relatively well. Bernie Sanders had a mediocre performance and could not improve desperately needed ratings to compete with Hillary. The other three never were on the radar map, and never will be. Two of them so far dropped out.

With Hillary Clinton destined to be the Democratic Presidential nominee, how will she fare in the final election? Nothing is certain so early, but much of it will be determined who the Republican nominee will be. She won't have many advantages Barack Obama had during his campaigns of 2008 and 2012. Obama had stronger support, compared to past Democratic Presidential candidates, from voters who are young (age 18 to 29), minorities, and women.

Hillary will likely retain strong support from women voters similar to Obama. However, it's skeptical if she will do as well with the young and minorities as Obama. Obama was age 48 old when he was campaigning in 2008. Hillary will be age 69 turning 70 during the campaign. For minority voters, it's been historically proven Black and Hispanic voters vote 89% and 62% Democrat during Presidential elections. When Obama was running, Black and Hispanic voters voting for him shot up to 93% and 69%, and voter turnout of minorities increased. With Hillary running, Black and Hispanic voters will likely return to normal levels of 89% and 62%, and turnout will be a little lower to normal levels.

Much of Hillary's success will be determined by the Republican nominee who is running against her.


Republicans

The two GOP candidates in the top tier (20+ poll ratings) are Donald Trump and Ben Carson.

Donald Trump - Everyone knows him, and his celebrity status is the highest among all Republican and Democratic candidates, which translates well into the polls. Although I don't see how someone who is arrogant, throws childish insults and tantrums against so many people, and involved in some controversial and risky businesses like casinos is going to win the general election, Donald Trump has shown determination and mastered the television, video, and social media. He has surpassed all expectations. A few months ago, polls showing him running against Hillary shows Hillary the strong winner by a wide margin. Now those matchup polls show Donald just a few points behind Hillary, within the margin of error.

Ben Carson - I think he has the best chance of beating Hillary and becoming the next President. Ben Carson was in a steady second place the last few months. Now Ben has been catching up to Donald, almost tied and both of them fluctuating a few points either way. In other words, Ben Carson is about tied with Donald Trump.

Matchup polls of  Ben Carson vs Hillary Clinton show Ben ahead a few points, but usually in the margin of error. He is a Black man who grew up in a poor area in Detroit raised by a single mother. He worked hard and diligently to become a successful neurosurgeon, which will help win minority voters. While Black and Hispanic voters are not going to vote Republican in the majority, Ben Carson will most likely limit the Black voters to less than 85% Democrat and Hispanic voters to less than 60% Democrat. In a very close Presidential race, this will be enough to lead Ben Carson to victory.

The GOP candidates in the second tier (5 to 12 percent poll ratings) are Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Carla Fiorina. There will only be one Republican Presidential candidate running in 2016, and even coming a close second is not good enough. These guys in the second tier are nowhere close to even second place, so if they don't significantly improve by December, they are effectively gone for 2016.

Third tier, not even close, and not worth the time mentioning them.

Friday, September 18, 2015

Preliminary Review of the 2016 Presidential Race


Even though the 2016 Presidential race is over a year away, everyone involved is getting ready for the big election. It's impossible to predict the outcome this early, but pundits and researchers can start making educated insights now. What's in store for the Republicans and Democrats in 2016?

Since President Obama was elected in 2008, it's been a consistent change of power every two years, where Democrats would dominate in the Presidential elections and Republicans would dominate to a somewhat lesser degree, since the President's seat is not involved, in the mid-term elections.

Obama isn't running in 2016, and we also learned that past traditions, trends, and loyalties of voters can be very soon forgotten and changed. With trends changing so fast in Washington D.C., it looks like the Republicans have a head start so far for the 2016 elections. Here's how.

American Voters like to see a balance of power and competition
Especially at the highest seat, the President, Americans voters like to see a balance of power and competition. We had a Democratic President for two terms, so history shows the voters are open toward the other party.

Obama's most popular agenda, raising taxes on the rich, is already done
Back in 2008, there was a strong public demand to eliminate Bush's disastrously failed economic policies of cutting taxes for the rich. Obama brought back most of the taxes for the rich, and while it was a little shorter than expected, the deficit was made up with higher Obama health care taxes on the rich, and numerous state and local governments raising taxes on the rich.

In 2016, raising taxes on the rich is no longer a high public demand. In economics, the only high public demand for 2016 that favors the Democrats is raising the minimum wage. However, it won't be as strong as raising taxes on the rich back in 2008.

Republicans have more candidates running and better choices
Republicans have more candidates running, and better choices than in 2008 and 2012 (remember when Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were the only serious competitors to Mitt Romney during the primaries, not that Mitt Romney was even a good candidate himself?) As of September 16 they already had two nationally televised debates, and many of the GOP candidates are getting their campaigns in good motion and getting good publicity. This schedule of Republican and Democrat Presidential debates on national TV show the Republicans have almost twice as many national debates than the Democrats.

On the other hand, the Democrats seem to have less than half the number of candidates than the Republicans. The only Democratic candidates that have a realistic change of being nominated are Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden. Hillary hasn't got her campaign started to any significant degree, when now is the time to get started. Her limited time on the media has been hampered with stories like how she manages her emails on a private email server and her trustworthy reputation has been going down, rather than drawing energetic rallies of thousands of people at a time. Bernie Sanders is a Senator from Vermont with little name recognition across the nation, and he's old at age 76. Joe Biden has not even officially declared that he's running for President, but the situation with the Democrats has gotten so bad, people are urging him to run for President.

Preliminary Conclusion
It's way too early to tell who will likely win the 2016 elections, but the Democrats better get their acts together, very soon and very fast. Politics is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get.

Monday, August 24, 2015

Louisiana murder suicide terrorist John Russell Houser

On July 23, 2015, another white male murderer and terrorist went inside a movie theater in Lafayette, Louisiana, and starts shooting at everyone with guns. Two people are killed, nine others injured, and the shooter eventually shoots himself in this terrorist murder suicide plot. Who is the shooter? Just examine Steve Sailer and his audience carefully, and you will see remarkably striking similarities.


The murder suicide shooter was an old white male, 59 year old John Russell Houser, who had a very troubled and miserable background no one would ever want. Here is a summary of who John Russell Houser really was. Read the two links below for the full details.

What we know about John Russell Houser, the Louisiana theater shooter

Inside the Twisted Mind of John Russell Houser

  • Houser was a “drifter” who had been living in a motel nearby
  • His wife filed for divorce four months ago
  • He had previously been denied a concealed carry weapons permit because of domestic violence issues
  • He was accused of vandalizing a home he lost in foreclosure
  • He expressed anti-Semitic and anti-gay views on online message boards and social media
  • His name was registered as a Tea Party Nation member in 2013
  • He had a history of mental illness, according to his family

Friday, July 17, 2015

Confederate Flags get taken down at record pace

Despite the malicious atrocities Dylann Roof committed when he shot up an African American church in Charleston SC and murdered 9 people, he set a record for taking down the Confederate flag at a record pace. So many civil rights groups have tried for so many decades to do this, yet Dylann Roof accomplished all this in one day. He helped everyone see the true colors of Confederate flag as the symbol of hatred, racism, treason, bloodshed, and slavery.


Here is a current status of Confederate flags being taken down across America.

Taken down:
South Carolina
Alabama
Hillsborough County, Florida

Legislation pending to take down:
Mississippi
Virginia & North Carolina - Remove confederate symbol from license plates

The largest retailer, Walmart, is no longer selling merchandise with Confederate symbols. Many Companies, retailers, and celebrities are following the same trend.

Race and Police Arrests

On June 17, a white male named Dylann Roof, who was directly associated with white supremacist hate groups, went to an African American church in Charleston, South Carolina, and started shooting at the church members with a handgun, killing 9 people (all Black). He was later arrested by the police in a calm and peaceful manner with no injuries or struggles.


On the other hand, June 5 in McKinney, Texas, a white officer named Eric Casebolt arrests a 15 year old Black girl who committed no crime, unarmed in a bikini, with excessive police brutality.


Sunday, June 07, 2015

Planes, Trains, and Automobiles - White males can be a serious endangerment

When vehicular accidents happen, non-white pilots or drivers get a bad rap. But what about white male pilots or drivers who cause horrific accidents? Does VDare, American Renaissance, or even the general media give white males the bad rap? Let's examine how terrible white male pilots or drivers can be.




Germanwings Flight 9525 Crash
On 24 March 2015, a Germanwings aircraft , an Airbus A320-200, crashed into the French Alps, resulting in the death of 144 passengers and 6 crew members. This was a deliberate and malicious murder suicide plot by co-pilot Andreas Lubitz (shown above). He was a white male who was suffering from severe depression problems (sounds like Steve Sailer and his audience). When the pilot momentarily left the cockpit during flight over France, Andreas Lubitz then locked the cockpit door with only himself inside the cockpit. Andreas Lubitz then descended the plane until the plane struck a mountain in the French Alps, killing everyone abroad in one of the world's worst murder suicide plot.




Amtrak Train Derailment in Philadelphia, PA
On May 12, 2015, an Amtrak train was bound from Washington, D.C. for New York City. While traversing through Philadelphia, PA, the train was traveling 102 mph along a curve with a speed limit of 50 mph. The train derailed in a disastrous and tragic accident, and of all 243 people on board, 8 were killed and over 200 injured, 11 critically.

The driver of the Amtrak train, which is called the engineer, is Brandon Bostian. He is a 32 year old white male responsible for one of the worst train accidents in history. His last public statements so far in mid-May was that he cannot remember anything about the crash, and he is not saying anything except through his lawyer. Typical defensive mechanism to lie by saying you can't remember anything, but that is the typical procedure when you are responsible for a reckless and horrific accident with lives lost and numerous serious injuries.




School Buses collide in Knoxville, TN
On December 2014, 48 year old school bus driver James Davenport was driving a bus of children in Knowville, Tenessee. He suddenly made a sharp left turn, crossing the concrete median, then crashed head on to another school bus. James Davenport was injured, and the worst fatalities were 3 people passengers who died, 6 year old Zykia Burns, 7 year old Seraya Glasper, and 46 year old teacher's aide Kimberly Riddle.

After a 6 month investigation, the police concluded James Davenport caused the accident because he was texting on his cell phone while driving. James Davenport suddenly died on June 1, 2015 at his home and that death is under investigation. Nevertheless, it shows everyone while males don't make better drivers. This is a recent article on James Davenport, the accident, and the police investigation.

Monday, April 27, 2015

Jon Entine: Pseudo-Journalist, Divorced felon guilty of domestic violence and child abuse

Pseudo-journalists like Jon Entine and Steve Sailer love to give their crackpot theories and analysis on various races and people, and judge other races by the millions. However, just as they can judge others, we can also investigate and judge them as well.

What has Jon Entine done since he wrote the book Taboo in 2000? Even though he has no credentials in genetics, he wrote a book in 2007 called Abraham's Children, where he provides more of his pseudo-analysis on the genes and ancestry of Jewish people. He also produced some documentaries after that criticizing the American agricultural industry for their use of pesticides.


Just as Jon Entine can make criticizing attacks on the U.S. agricultural industry and other people based on shoddy journalism, those being unfairly attacked can find fault with him. What has gone on with Jon Entine's personal life? This article by Natural News exposes the truth on Jon Entine - He is a divorced father and criminal guilty of domestic violence and child abuse.

Jon Entine has had marital and family problems for a long time. When he was married to then wife Ellen Turner before 2006, they were having serious domestic violence problems for awhile. In January of 2005, Entine's then wife Ellen Turner sought a court restraining order against him that demanded he refrain from physically injuring her person or abusing their child. Court documents from Hamilton County, Ohio revealed some very disturbing and heinous domestic violence incidents by Jon Entine (see the Natural News link above for more details and links to the court documents).
Posted on the Jon Entine page of Truthwiki.org, an exhaustive series of publicly-available PDF documents from the courts of Hamilton County, Ohio state that Jon Entine physically assaulted his wife. He "...became very belligerent and aggressive toward Plaintiff [his wife]. He pushed her, shoved her, gouged her eye, choked her and pushed her into the porch column. He slammed the door and refused to release [their daughter]. Plaintiff finally called the Indian Hill Rangers..."
Entine's wife, Ellen Turner, then sought a court order requiring Jon Entine to attend "anger management classes." She further described Entine as "irrational and unpredictable" and warned the courts that his bizarre behavior "appears to be escalating."
The following paragraph, also found in the court document PDFs shown on the Jon Entine Truthwiki page, revealed how Ellen Turner was "assaulted by [Jon Entine]. This occurred in the presence of [their daughter] who has been psychologically traumatized as a result. [Daughter] is afraid of [Jon Entine]... he has become increasingly and exceedingly hostile and belligerent. [The wife] fears that [Entine's] mental health has deteriorated..."
After years of violence and abuse, Jon Entine and Ellen Turner were divorced on November 2006. But Jon's downhill descent didn't end with the divorce. Just like anyone following the path of Steve Sailer, the bad news keeps getting worse. The Natural News link is a five page article on Jon Entine that are linked together, so make sure you read all five pages. Here are more areas on the real Jon Entine that are exposed.

  • Jon Entine begins dating via EHarmony.com while still living with wife - court documents
  • Fired by ABC news, characterized as "out of control"
  • Jon Entine stages manufacturing violation then calls the FDA, then cites his own contrived staging as evidence against the company - report
  • A wikipedia vandal who defames real scientists questioning the safety of GMOs
  • Jon Entine demands to see his wife's diaries and personal journals
  • Jon Entine illegally enters wife's residence, wife demands "psychological evaluation"
  • Entine threatens his daughter's therapist with legal action
  • Entine threatens the credibility of George Mason University
  • Entine attempts to sue others for merely questioning his qualifications
  • Entine is an apologist for deadly chemicals like atrazine