The first area to analyze after an election are the three core demographics of the voters: race, gender, and age. Although Hillary Clinton narrowly won the popular vote by about 200,000 votes over Donald Trump, the electoral college declared Trump to be the winner by 310 to 228. Here are the 2016 CNN exit polls
. The 2008 and 2012 exit polls and analyses below are being referenced for comparison.
2008 gender and age
2012 gender and age
The white voters definitely led Trump to his victory, but how much of an impact does the white vote have in 2016? In 2012, white voters made up 72% of voters and voted 59% for Romney, yet Romney lost big time. In 2016, white voters declined to 70% and voted 58% for Trump, yet Trump won. There were no hidden masses of white voters that came out in great numbers to vote for Trump in 2016. in fact, white voters were down in 2016. Trump's victory came as a result of the smaller minority voters turnout and voting rate.
The turnout of the largest and most loyal Democratic minority voters, Blacks, declined from 2012 to 2016. Black voters declined from 13% to 12%. Other minority voters, Latinos, Asians, and Others, saw a 1 point increase each, but being not as loyal to Democrats, that did not help much.
The other important factor in race was that minority voters who voted Democrat was down from the Obama elections of 2008 and 2012. It's not that Hillary lost out of minority voters, but minority voter rates who vote Democrat went back to their normal levels compared to Obama.
Even though white voter turnout was a little less, because more white voters live and vote in sparsely populated rural areas, it gave Trump an advantage in the electoral college. The Sailer Strategy of reaching out to only white voters is still dead in 2016. It's just that the Democrats need to keep reaching out to the growing minority voters effectively, and reach out to white voters as well. While Democrats are not going to win the majority of white voters, just winning 1 point more of the white vote will ensure an easy victory.
Hillary didn't quite do as well with the women voters as expected. Compared to Obama, women voters were not there for Hillary. In 2016, women made of 52% of voters. That is down from 53% in 2008 and 2012. Also, Hillary won 54% of women voters, but that is down from the 55 to 56% that Obama won. It must have been her past controversies that made women, as well as all voters, a little hesitant at the least to support her. The women voters make up the majority and they are out there, but Hillary did not do as well as Obama this time.
The under age 30 group, called the millenials or young voters, delivered Obama a strong victory twice. In 2016 young voters made up 19% of voters, which is consistent to the Obama elections. While Hillary did win the young voters (55%), it was not as much as Obama to guarantee an easy victory to Hillary. Obama won 60 to 66% of the young voters.
Democrats are going to keep pressing for the young voters if they want to win. Even more importantly, Democrats need to get the young voters they won to vote every year in non-Presidential elections, because the President is not all powerful. There are so many more federal, state, and local political seats out there.
The Democrats need to be more careful who they select as their nominee. I, along as many voters, was skeptical about Hillary Clinton because of her past controversies. Just because a woman is running for office does not guarantee victory with Democratic voters of women, minorities, and young voters. John McCain learned this the hard way in 2008 when he picked Sarah Palin
as his running mate. While Hillary Clinton is no boob like Sarah Palin, Hillary does have weaknesses and controversies.
If Bernie Sanders was running, I'm sure it would have been an easy victory for Bernie. Time to fire DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Shultz and get rid of the failed superdelegate system
of the Democratic nominating process.
P.S. This is only the first of my 2016 election analysis. There is more to come over the next several days.