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Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Sailer Strategy is long dead and deeply buried in 2008

Here's the demographics of the voters in the Presidential elections by race. Let's focus on the 21st century and look at the trends since the 2000 Presidential election. All sources are from CNN to stay consistent.


2000 Election
% of all votersR (Bush)D (Gore)
White815442
Black10990
Hispanic23562
Asian34155
Other43955


2004 Election
% of all votersR (Bush)D (Kerry)
White775841
Black111188
Hispanic84453
Asian24456
Other24054


2008 Election
% of all votersR (McCain)D (Obama)
White745543
Black13495
Hispanic93167
Asian23562
Other33166


Barack Obama managed to earn a solid win and become the President of the United States by avoiding everything Steve Sailer preached. Steve Sailer made this observation after the 2000 elections on VDare.
What if Bush II had won 57% of the white vote? That's hardly an outlandish figure since Bush I had taken 59% in 1988. If Dubya had garnered 57% instead of just 54% of whites, he would have cruised to an Electoral College landslide of 367 to 171. Why? Because whites remain by far the dominant bloc in the U.S. They count for 81% of all votes cast.

Four years later in 2004, Dubya accomplished what Sailer predicted by winning not 57 percent, but 58 percent of the white vote. Did he crush the electoral college with the behemoth white vote as Sailer predicted? Dubya barely edges out a victory in the electoral college, 286 to 252. Not very impressive for an incumbent.

Every year the white population declines, and every Presidential election the white vote takes significant steps downward. In 2000, whites made up 81 percent of voters. It drops steadily every year, with white voters making up 77 percent in 2004 and 74 percent in 2008.

The white vote is still a majority vote which is necessary to win, but following the Sailer Strategy is suicidal like Steve Sailer himself. As the minority voters increase every year, the problem for the Republicans is that they are losing out on the growing minority voters.

Democrats would earn the Hispanic vote in the 55 to 60 percent range at the turn of the century. As the Hispanic voters grew, would the Hispanic vote normalize and approach the 50 percent range? No, the GOP politicians followed the Sailer Strategy and viciously attacked the Hispanic population. In 2008, Hispanics voted 67 percent Democrat and developed a stronger hatred for the Republicans, just as the Republicans hated them.

Republicans are also losing out on the Asian vote. At the turn of the century, Asian American voters voted around 55 percent Democrat. With the racism, stupidity, and incompetence of Sailer and the Republicans, Asians voted 62 percent Democrat.

Barack Obama is President and won the electoral college by a large margin. He wisely avoided the Sailer Strategy. The lesson for the rest of you loser Sailer followers, do you wish to continue to follow Steve Sailer's dead-end path and become more like him?

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