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Wednesday, November 03, 2010

2010 Election Analysis - Race, Sex, Age

The 2010 elections have passed and the Republicans have gained a significant number of seats of Congress, although they do not dominate. The Republicans won about 56 percent of the seats in the House, but could not win the Senate as the Democrats retained a small majority.

Let's get to the point and analyze how race, sex, and age affected the 2010 elections, and the future of both parties. All data is from the CNN Election 2010 website, which covers the voters in the House elections nationwide.


The Republicans did well because they won more white voters, and since this is an even non-Presidential election year, older white voters are more likely to vote. In typical Presidential elections, whites tend to vote 55 to 58 percent Republican and consisted of 74 percent of voters in 2008. In 2010, whites voted 60 percent Republican and consisted of 78 percent of voters.

Does that mean the Sailer Strategy is still alive? Not at all, because following the Sailer Strategy means focusing only on declining white voters and ignoring everyone else, which will prove to be suicidal in 2012 and beyond.

With the growing minority voters, the Republicans failed, as always, to reach out to the minority groups. Here are the voting patterns by race in the 2010 House races.

The percentage of minority voters who voted Democrat in 2010 were a little down from 2008 when Obama captured an all time record high, but they are consistent with voting Democrat for countless years. Blacks (90%), Latino (64%), Asian (56%), and Other (53%) strongly voted Democrat and the Republicans failed to win their votes.

The only good news for the Republicans is that the minority voters made up a slightly smaller percentage of voters in 2010, but this will not be the case in 2012. The white voting population will decline to 72 or 71 percent of voters and Obama will dominate the minority vote.


The Republicans did have some success gathering women voters in 2010, who consistently make up 53 percent of all voters. Usually around 44 percent of women vote Republican, but this time they won an abnormally high 49 percent of women voters, as a record number of female Republicans ran for office and Sarah Palin was campaigning for them. The Republicans also reclaimed some of the men voters they lost in 2008.

In 2008, women and men voted 43% and 48% for McCain respectively. In 2010, women and men voted 49% and 56% Republican in House races respectively.

Will the Republicans win this many women voters in 2012 and beyond? Very unlikely, but time will tell and that is still awhile away. To win women voters, they must act less misogynist, but that will destroy what defines the Republicans. Politics, deceit, and hypocrisy are such tough jobs.

The young voters age 18 to 29 are most likely to vote Democrat, but they are less likely to vote in the less popular non-Presidential elections. In 2008, the young made up 18% of voters; in 2010, the young made up 11% of voters.

A blunt lesson to the Democrats, strategists, and campaign managers. You will have to find a way to reach out to the under age 30 voters in the non-Presidential elections, especially the odd year elections.


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