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Friday, October 10, 2014

Preview of 2014 Elections

The 2014 elections are less than one month away and what can we expect based on the polls and news? Not much, it's pretty much going to be the same status quo.

The Republicans have 45 seats in the Senate and need to win at least 6 Senate seats to reclaim the Senate by a narrow margin. In 2008, the Democrats won a good number of Senate seats, and with the 6 year term ending, there are 20 Democrat and 13 Republican Senate seats up for election in 2014. With a young voter turnout down in a non-Presidential election, both these factors will favor the GOP.

Polls indicate it's a tossup if the GOP will reclaim the Senate, but they should win at least 5 Senate seats. Even if the GOP wins 6 Senate seats, it's only a very slim majority in the Senate. With 51 Senate seats, the Republicans are well short of 60 seats needed to override a Democratic filibuster, and even much shorter in terms of overriding a Presidential veto. The best a weak GOP Senate majority can do is create a nuisance by delaying federal judge appointees from President Obama in his last 2 years in office, but it's going to be the same status quo.

The Republicans lost 8 House seats in 2012 but still have a majority (234 seats) in the House of Representatives. The GOP should win a few House seats back, but unlikely the 8 seats they lost. Whether the GOP wins or loses a few seats, they will have the House majority and it will be the same status quo.

In the state governor races of 2014, the Republicans are expected to lose a few of those seats.

While the bright light for the Republicans is possibly reclaiming the Senate, keep in mind the 2016 elections will turn the tables. The 2016 election is the Presidential election where the young and minority voters will come out in record numbers. While there are 20 Democrat and 13 Republican Senate seats up for election in 2014, the Republicans Senators who won those seats back in 2010 are up for re-election. In 2016, the Democrats will have the advantage when 10 Democrat seats and 24 Republican Senate seats are up for election.

The best the Democrats can do this election is to reach out to the young voters who only vote on Presidential elections to develop the consistency to vote every year.

As usual, I will provide my comprehensive and in-depth election analysis after November 4.

2 Comments:

  • Didn't do so well with this one. But then no one predicted the wave that hit on election night.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:37 PM  

  • This was a month before the elections. So many things change in the last month. All the pollsters and experts (like Nate Silver), which I used my sources, we're off a lot. Elections are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get next.

    By Blogger sailerfraud, at 6:09 PM  

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