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Thursday, November 06, 2014

2014 Election Analysis - Race, Sex, Age

The 2014 election results are in and the Republicans dominated this midterm election. Race, sex, and age heavily influences who wins or loses elections, so it's time to analyze the impact on the 2014 elections. Data comes from the CNN Election 2014 website, which polls the voters in the House elections nationwide.

As a reference, here are the polls of some past elections to help analyze.


Race

The racial demographics of America consistently gets more diversified. Although this doesn't bring the Republicans good news, at least for them minority voter turnout is often lower in midterm elections. In the previous midterm election of 2010, White voters made up 78%; this declined to 75% in 2014. Both times white voters voted 60% Republican. In the last Presidential election of 2012, White voters made up 72% and voted 59% Republican.

In this election, the Democrats actively campaigned to the Black voters and it worked. In 2010, Black voters made up 10% and voted 90% Democrat. In 2014, Black voters increased to 12% and voted 89% Democrat.

Latino voters voted slightly less Democrat, but Democrats lost out on the Asian voters. In 2010, Asians only made up 1% of voters and voted 56% Democrat. In 2014, Asian voters increased significantly to 3% but voted more evenly, voting 49/50 Democrat/Republican.

In reaching out to minority voters, Democrats did well overall because they successfully reached out to the largest and most loyal minority population, African Americans. However, they are losing out to the two fastest growing minority populations of America, Latinos and Asians.


Sex

It's always been a gender war in American politics, with Republicans capturing men voters and Democrats capturing women voters. In 2014, the Republicans successfully captured the men voters, but the Democrats failed to capture the women voters, which is the primary reason the Democrats were soundly defeated this election.

In almost every election, Presidential, midterm, odd year, special election, the female/male voter ratio is usually 53% to 47%. With this ratio, there are an average of 1.128 women voters for every 1 male voter. So to break even in the gender gap, the Republican must win 1.128 men voters for every one female vote the Democrat wins.

In 2014 something different happened. Women only made up 51% of voters, while men made up 49%. Not only that, but women voters only voted 51% Democrat, a considerable decline from the 55% or more women traditionally vote Democrat. Men voters voted 57% Republican.

Whether it's because women voters were not enthusiastic about Democrats, or the Democrats didn't reach out to women, or new men voters suddenly came out in large crowds to vote Republican, the Democrats lost women voters considerably and thus lost the 2014 elections considerably.


Age


We're aware that the young voters under age 30 are the most likely to vote democrat, but young voter turnout declines during non-Presidential elections. The Democrats are aware of this and actively reached out to young voters during the 2014 campaign. How did the Democrats do?

In 2014 the Democrats made significant improvements reaching out to young voters. In the midterm election of 2010 young voters made up 11% of voters and voted 57% Democrat. In 2014 young voters increased to 13% and voted 54% Democrat. In the Presidential election of 2012, young voters made up 19% of voters and voted 60% Democrat.

Young voter turnout is trending upward in midterm elections, but there is significantly more room to grow to reach Presidential election numbers. Not only do the Democrats need to get the young voters out to vote, but they must convince them to vote Democrat. In 2014, young voters voting Democrat declined to 54%, although they are still the most likely to vote Democrat.


Conclusion
Democrats win elections by reaching out to minority, women, and young voters. Of the three categories, the Democrats greatly lost out to women voters in 2014, and have drastically suffered in the elections. Looks like the Democrats were so focused on Black and young voters in 2014, they almost forgot to reach out to women.

The next group Democrats need to reach out to are the young voters. They made progress compared to 2010, but they still need to continue reaching out to young voters to vote every year, not just Presidential elections. Not only do they need to get the young voters to vote every year, but they must convince the young voters to vote Democrat.

While the Democrats did well reaching out to Black voters in 2014 and helped lessen their losses, the racial voting population isn't just black and white. There's alot of diversity, and the Democrats need to get the Latino, Asian, Native American, mixed, and other races to vote every year, and convince them to vote Democrats as well.

1 Comments:

  • Gha - me - sou

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:41 AM  

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