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Friday, September 18, 2015

Preliminary Review of the 2016 Presidential Race

Even though the 2016 Presidential race is over a year away, everyone involved is getting ready for the big election. It's impossible to predict the outcome this early, but pundits and researchers can start making educated insights now. What's in store for the Republicans and Democrats in 2016?

Since President Obama was elected in 2008, it's been a consistent change of power every two years, where Democrats would dominate in the Presidential elections and Republicans would dominate to a somewhat lesser degree, since the President's seat is not involved, in the mid-term elections.

Obama isn't running in 2016, and we also learned that past traditions, trends, and loyalties of voters can be very soon forgotten and changed. With trends changing so fast in Washington D.C., it looks like the Republicans have a head start so far for the 2016 elections. Here's how.

American Voters like to see a balance of power and competition
Especially at the highest seat, the President, Americans voters like to see a balance of power and competition. We had a Democratic President for two terms, so history shows the voters are open toward the other party.

Obama's most popular agenda, raising taxes on the rich, is already done
Back in 2008, there was a strong public demand to eliminate Bush's disastrously failed economic policies of cutting taxes for the rich. Obama brought back most of the taxes for the rich, and while it was a little shorter than expected, the deficit was made up with higher Obama health care taxes on the rich, and numerous state and local governments raising taxes on the rich.

In 2016, raising taxes on the rich is no longer a high public demand. In economics, the only high public demand for 2016 that favors the Democrats is raising the minimum wage. However, it won't be as strong as raising taxes on the rich back in 2008.

Republicans have more candidates running and better choices
Republicans have more candidates running, and better choices than in 2008 and 2012 (remember when Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were the only serious competitors to Mitt Romney during the primaries, not that Mitt Romney was even a good candidate himself?) As of September 16 they already had two nationally televised debates, and many of the GOP candidates are getting their campaigns in good motion and getting good publicity. This schedule of Republican and Democrat Presidential debates on national TV show the Republicans have almost twice as many national debates than the Democrats.

On the other hand, the Democrats seem to have less than half the number of candidates than the Republicans. The only Democratic candidates that have a realistic change of being nominated are Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden. Hillary hasn't got her campaign started to any significant degree, when now is the time to get started. Her limited time on the media has been hampered with stories like how she manages her emails on a private email server and her trustworthy reputation has been going down, rather than drawing energetic rallies of thousands of people at a time. Bernie Sanders is a Senator from Vermont with little name recognition across the nation, and he's old at age 76. Joe Biden has not even officially declared that he's running for President, but the situation with the Democrats has gotten so bad, people are urging him to run for President.

Preliminary Conclusion
It's way too early to tell who will likely win the 2016 elections, but the Democrats better get their acts together, very soon and very fast. Politics is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get.