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Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Presidential Race Analysis - October 28, 2015

What's going on with the Presidential Race of 2016 so far? It will constantly change and many surprises are sure to come up. The Democrats had their first Presidential nominee debate on October 13 and the Republicans already had two debates, with their third one coming up this night of October 28. Also, how will the leading candidates fare when the election comes up in just 12 months, and the race really gets rolling in a mere 8 months for the selected nominees?


Democrats

Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Presidential nominee running in 2016. Bernie Sanders was a distant second place in the polls, and after the Democratic debate on October 13, Hillary strengthened her lead. She didn't do great, but okay. However, there were just four other candidates who all were disappointing, so Hillary did relatively well. Bernie Sanders had a mediocre performance and could not improve desperately needed ratings to compete with Hillary. The other three never were on the radar map, and never will be. Two of them so far dropped out.

With Hillary Clinton destined to be the Democratic Presidential nominee, how will she fare in the final election? Nothing is certain so early, but much of it will be determined who the Republican nominee will be. She won't have many advantages Barack Obama had during his campaigns of 2008 and 2012. Obama had stronger support, compared to past Democratic Presidential candidates, from voters who are young (age 18 to 29), minorities, and women.

Hillary will likely retain strong support from women voters similar to Obama. However, it's skeptical if she will do as well with the young and minorities as Obama. Obama was age 48 old when he was campaigning in 2008. Hillary will be age 69 turning 70 during the campaign. For minority voters, it's been historically proven Black and Hispanic voters vote 89% and 62% Democrat during Presidential elections. When Obama was running, Black and Hispanic voters voting for him shot up to 93% and 69%, and voter turnout of minorities increased. With Hillary running, Black and Hispanic voters will likely return to normal levels of 89% and 62%, and turnout will be a little lower to normal levels.

Much of Hillary's success will be determined by the Republican nominee who is running against her.


Republicans

The two GOP candidates in the top tier (20+ poll ratings) are Donald Trump and Ben Carson.

Donald Trump - Everyone knows him, and his celebrity status is the highest among all Republican and Democratic candidates, which translates well into the polls. Although I don't see how someone who is arrogant, throws childish insults and tantrums against so many people, and involved in some controversial and risky businesses like casinos is going to win the general election, Donald Trump has shown determination and mastered the television, video, and social media. He has surpassed all expectations. A few months ago, polls showing him running against Hillary shows Hillary the strong winner by a wide margin. Now those matchup polls show Donald just a few points behind Hillary, within the margin of error.

Ben Carson - I think he has the best chance of beating Hillary and becoming the next President. Ben Carson was in a steady second place the last few months. Now Ben has been catching up to Donald, almost tied and both of them fluctuating a few points either way. In other words, Ben Carson is about tied with Donald Trump.

Matchup polls of  Ben Carson vs Hillary Clinton show Ben ahead a few points, but usually in the margin of error. He is a Black man who grew up in a poor area in Detroit raised by a single mother. He worked hard and diligently to become a successful neurosurgeon, which will help win minority voters. While Black and Hispanic voters are not going to vote Republican in the majority, Ben Carson will most likely limit the Black voters to less than 85% Democrat and Hispanic voters to less than 60% Democrat. In a very close Presidential race, this will be enough to lead Ben Carson to victory.

The GOP candidates in the second tier (5 to 12 percent poll ratings) are Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Carla Fiorina. There will only be one Republican Presidential candidate running in 2016, and even coming a close second is not good enough. These guys in the second tier are nowhere close to even second place, so if they don't significantly improve by December, they are effectively gone for 2016.

Third tier, not even close, and not worth the time mentioning them.

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