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Thursday, February 11, 2016

New Hampshire Primary: Trump vs Clinton or Sanders


With the New Hampshire primary done on February 9, one thing is clear from the GOP side: Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee for the President. The polls showing he would win big were all true, and with Trump's increased momentum and energized crowds, and polls showing he will continue to win in future states, I'll have to put aside any personal feelings about Trump and just state the facts: Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee.

Unlike Hillary Clinton's private email server problems and past scandals and controversial that only grows worse the more she tries to hide it, we all know everything about Donald Trump. Although he is very blunt, insensitive, and has controversies with past casinos, Trump is open and straightforward. He has not hidden any past scandals (at least we know of so far) that grow worse over time.

On the Democratic side, what a mess. Since last summer, the Democratic National Committee assumed their favorite Hillary Clinton would easily win the primary early on, then move on early to fundraise and prepare for the Presidential election. Such shortsighted miscalculations can be dangerous. Instead of  having competition with multiple candidate and let the Democratic voters decide the best candidate, the DNC let arrogance get in their way and dictate that Hillary would be the candidate. Now it's becoming a very lengthy, close battle for the Democrats in the primaries. Even if Hillary wins the nomination, Trump and the Republicans will certainly exploit her numerous and worsening controversies and do tremendous damage to her campaign.

On March 1 called Super Tuesday, there will be 14 states that will have their primary elections. I'll report on March 2 with the results and analysis. By then Trump should be so far ahead he has effectively clinched the Republican nomination, and all other Republican should concede and drop out (unless they want to continue to rack up debts to a hopeless cause). Then the GOP will start preparing for the main election. For the Democrats, it's unlikely the nominee will be known by March 2. It's more like March 16, after Super Tuesday when another dozen states have their primaries for Democrats, we'll determine the Democratic nominee. But the Democratic primaries can go into April, since it is a tossup.

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