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Friday, November 18, 2016

Future revival plan for the Democrats

I really do think it was for the better for the democrats that Hillary Clinton did not win the 2016 election. If Hillary did win, she would definitely be a one term President. If Hillary hasn't died or suffered a serious health crisis by 2020, she would surely lose to any half decent Republican candidate. Also, the Democrats are facing a tough Senate race in 2018, with 25 Democratic senators vs 8 Republican senators running for election. Hillary is no where near as popular as Obama, so a 2018 election with President Hillary would be even a greater disaster for the Democrats than 2014. Plus the Republicans in Congress would provide an obstructionist roadblock against President Hillary's agenda.

With Democratic Congressional gains minimal in 2016 when big wins were needed to recover from the big 2014 losses, 2016 was a loss for the Democrats. We can only change the future, not the past, so this is what the Democrats needed for a revival plan.

Get their core voters to vote in every election, not just the Presidential elections
Young voters under age 30, minorities, and women make up the core Democratic voters that led Obama to victory twice. While Hillary won the majority from these core voters, it was well short of Obama's accomplishments, which is why Hillary lost.

During non-Presidential elections, voter turnout of the young and minorities drop significantly, which is why the Democrats lost so many Congressional seats and state governor/legislator seats. As we saw with Obama, the President isn't all so powerful. Congress must write legislation and approve it before it reaches the President. State and local governments are even more important because it is so much more effective to get legislation passed at the state and local levels, as opposed to being nearly impossible to even reach Congress. Having more members in Congress and state governors provides a larger and better pool of candidates running for the Presidency. Look at the start of the 2016 primaries, there were 17  Republican candidates vs 5 Democratic candidates, and the pool of Democratic candidates was so bad we only had 2 viable candidates (Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders) running.

While Obama was President, the GOP were using their majorities in Congress and state seats to their advantage for years to come. When the GOP won the House majority in 2010, they used their power to gerrymander the Congressional districts, which are drawn every decade from the U.S. Census. At the state level, the GOP were using their power in state governors/legislators to their advantage. The Republicans would often place voting restrictions, such as Voter ID laws and limiting or eliminating early voting for the purpose of suppressing minority voters.

Reach out to the white voters
This does not mean to follow the defunct Sailer Strategy of reaching out to only white voters and ignoring the minority voters. All voters are important and every vote counts. While the Democrats will not win the majority of the white vote, they need to reach out them. At 70% of the voters during Presidential elections and considerably higher in non-Presidential, special, and runoff elections (often surpassing 80%), white voters are still the large majority. When the Republicans surpass 55% of the white vote, it delivers a devastating blow to the Democrats. Democrats need to focus on all voters, white and minority.

Eliminate the superdelegate voting system in the Democratic Presidential primaries
In the Democratic Presidential primaries, the superdelegates are long time Democratic insiders whose vote make up one third of the delegate vote, with the remaining two thirds by the people. Of course the superdelegates are grossly biased toward insiders like themselves. Just comparing the popular vote in the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton won 15.8 million votes (56.8%) vs Bernie Sanders who won 12.0 million votes (43.2%). It would have been very likely that Bernie Sanders, who is far more respectable, likeable, trusted, and popular (his rallies draw tens of thousands of people), could have won if his momentum was not suppressed by the superdelegates.

Thursday, November 17, 2016

What went wrong with Hillary Clinton's campaign?

What were Hillary Clinton's mistakes during the 2016 election, and what can Democrats do to learn from this lesson to ensure their chances of losses will be minimized? Some say because Hillary had a slight lead in the popular vote, the solution is to get rid of the electoral college and replace it with the popular vote for Presidential elections. Donald Trump made a quote on Facebook.

If the election were based on total popular vote I would have campaigned in NY, Florida and California and won even bigger and more easily!

I have to agree with Donald on this one. Trump was campaigning all around America, especially the dozens of battleground states, instead of wasting resources campaigning in large Democratic stronghold states (California, Illinois, New York) that will never vote in the majority for a Republican. In a popular vote election, Trump would have focused and won a few million more votes from those populated blue states.

Perhaps FBI director James Comey or the Wikileaks emails had an impact, but polls showed that her unpopularity levels were consistent through the campaign. The real culprit for Hillary's loss was no one else but herself. Hillary's arrogance, bad judgment, lack of charisma, corruption, ties to big government in D.C. and big corporations over the average American, and health and mental problems were all factors to her loss.

It's very rare to see the Huffington Post criticize a Democrat, so when they write this article above criticizing Hillary Clinton, you know she really messed up. The article shows how Hillary's arrogance and negligence in reaching out to voters in the northern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were a disastrous failure. They were moderate blue states (except Ohio, a weak blue state) for decades and Hillary thought they were safe blue. Then Trump won all those states and thus the election. Hillary's health and mental problems were also factors why she did not travel to those states for public rallies like Trump, if Hillary ever did visit those states.

Watch this The Young Turks video.

The video title is "Who's To Blame For Hillary Clinton's Loss?" As TYT correctly points out, it's only Hillary to blame for her own loss. She marginally won the groups of loyal Democratic supporters, including Blacks, Latinos, women, young, and Bernie Sanders supporters. However, it was well short of what Obama won. And, of course, Hillary lost the support of independents and moderates big time.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Northern Virginia 10th district no longer safe red

Back in 2014, I covered the House race for northern Virginia's 10th district. It is close to Washington D.C. and an affluent and populated district that makes this House race prized. The House seat was held by Republican Frank Wolf from 1980 to 2014. It was a solid Republican district as no Democrat challenger has ever won more than 41% of the vote or lost by any less than 16 points since the election of 1984.

There was hope for the Democrats in 2014 when Frank Wolf declared his retirement this year, the district seemed more moderately Republican, and a new Republican candidate named Barbara Comstock was running for the 2014 election. That hope quickly faded when Barbara Comstock solidly won the election, 56% to 40%, and keeping the same tradition of demolishing Democratic opponents as Frank Wolf has done since 1984.

In a most surprising miracle, the light of hope for the Democrats lit up again after over 30 years of darkness. The Democratic challenger was Luann Bennett, and although she was considered to be a weak campaigner and candidate, the Democratic and Republican parties spent heavily on this heated race. Barbara Comstock won the election of 2016, but a miracle took place. Comstock only won the race by 53% to 47%. This was a significant impact because for over 30 years, no Democrat challenger has ever won more than 41% of the vote or lost by any less than 16 points.

In 2016, Luann Bennett won 47% of the vote and lost by 6 points. Luann Bennett tied Donald Trump and his unpopular controversies to Comstock, and it made a big impact to place Virginia's 10th district as a weak Republican district which the Democrats can realistically win over again after over 30 years of solid Republican rule.

Congress sees more diversity in women, but no net gains for women

Looking beyond the Presidential race of 2016 that was a disappointment for many women, Congress kept the status quo for women. The Senate had women gain one seat, and the House had women lose one seat, for a net gain of zero of seats in Congress held by women. However, the seats in Congress held by women saw more diversity. Here are many of the women of color to be part of Congress when the new class starts in January 2017. All these women mentioned below are Democrats.

Tammy Duckworth won the Senate race in Ilinois, defeating one term Mark Kirk in a heated race. Tammy Duckworth has a House seat and will be moving to the Senate. She is Thai American and an Iraq war veteran who lost both legs during combat, compared to Mark Kirk who has no heroics himself.

Catherine Cortez Masto will be the first Latina senator, after she won in Nevada, taking over Harry Reid's seat.

Kamala Harris of California, who will take over Sen. Barbara Boxer's seat, is Indian- and African-American. She will be the first Indian-American in the Senate and the second black female senator.

Pramila Jayapal, who won in Washington state, immigrated to the U.S. after being born in India and raised in Indonesia and Singapore.

Stephanie Murphy, who won in Florida, is the daughter of Vietnamese refugees; she will be the first Vietnamese-American in Congress.

Nanette Barragan is the first Latina elected by her congressional district in Los Angeles.

Lisa Blunt Rochester will be the first African-American to serve in Congress from Delaware

Val Demings will be the first African-American to fill her Florida congressional seat.

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Preliminary Election Results 2016

Here are the preliminary election results of 2016. These are not the final results because of recounts on close races, voter counting, and runoff elections. It won't be until December the final and official results are in.

Presidential Race
Donald Trump wins, has 290 electoral votes, compared to Hillary Clinton's 228 electoral votes, so far when 270 is needed to win. Another 20 electoral votes are being counted and Trump will win Michigan (16) and Hillary will win New Hampshire (4).

Senate Race
Republicans retain the majority in the Senate. They had 54 seats and after this election they have retained 51 seats so far for the majority. A senate race in Louisiana is going to the runoff election because in Louisiana, if a candidate does not win 50% of the vote in the election, a runoff election is necessary to determine the winner. This is biased toward the Republicans. During the 2014 U.S. Senate election in Louisiana, Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu won 42.0% to Republican challenger Bill Cassidy 41.0%. A runoff election was held where Bill Cassidy won the runoff election and the Senate seat, primarily because the African American and minority voter turnout was down considerably in the runoff election. Because of this biased structure, it looks like the Republicans will win the Louisiana Senate seat in the runoff election, for a total of 52 Senate seats.

This modest gain of two Senate seats for the Democrats is a disappointment, because the Democrats lost 9 Senate seats in 2014. There were 24 Republican senators running vs 10 Democrat senators in 2016 in a Presidential election. The Democrats should have easily picked up at least 5 Senate seats to gain the majority.

House Race
The House seat count before the election was 247 Republican to 188 Democrat. After the election, the count so far is 239 Republican to 192 Democrat with 4 seats being counted. With 2 of those seats in Louisiana heading to a runoff election, it looks like the Republicans have 241 seats in the House. The Democrats lost 13 House seats in 2014 and only made modest gains (up to 6 House seats) in 2016.

State Races
Minimal change

2016 was a bad year for the Democrats. Losing the main prize, the Presidency, and making modest gains in the House and Senate races, was a loss. The loss wasn't as bad as in 2014, and there is some good news (better than 2014 at least). I also feel it would be better for the Democratic party that Hillary Clinton did not win, because Democratic losses in Congress would be far worse in 2018 when 25 Democrat senators vs 8 Republican senators are running.

This requires a deep analysis and restructuring of the Democratic National Committee, their leadership, and their tactics. More analysis is coming up in the next few days.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

2016 Election Analysis - Race, Gender, Age

The first area to analyze after an election are the three core demographics of the voters: race, gender, and age. Although Hillary Clinton narrowly won the popular vote by about 200,000 votes over Donald Trump, the electoral college declared Trump to be the winner by 310 to 228. Here are the 2016 CNN exit polls. The 2008 and 2012 exit polls and analyses below are being referenced for comparison.
2008 race
2008 gender and age
2012 race
2012 gender and age

The white voters definitely led Trump to his victory, but how much of an impact does the white vote have in 2016? In 2012, white voters made up 72% of voters and voted 59% for Romney, yet Romney lost big time. In 2016, white voters declined to 70% and voted 58% for Trump, yet Trump won. There were no hidden masses of white voters that came out in great numbers to vote for Trump in 2016. in fact, white voters were down in 2016. Trump's victory came as a result of the smaller minority voters turnout and voting rate.

The turnout of the largest and most loyal Democratic minority voters, Blacks, declined from 2012 to 2016. Black voters declined from 13% to 12%. Other minority voters, Latinos, Asians, and Others, saw a 1 point increase each, but being not as loyal to Democrats, that did not help much.

The other important factor in race was that minority voters who voted Democrat was down from the Obama elections of 2008 and 2012. It's not that Hillary lost out of minority voters, but minority voter rates who vote Democrat went back to their normal levels compared to Obama.

Even though white voter turnout was a little less, because more white voters live and vote in sparsely populated rural areas, it gave Trump an advantage in the electoral college. The Sailer Strategy of reaching out to only white voters is still dead in 2016. It's just that the Democrats need to keep reaching out to the growing minority voters effectively, and reach out to white voters as well. While Democrats are not going to win the majority of white voters, just winning 1 point more of the white vote will ensure an easy victory.

Hillary didn't quite do as well with the women voters as expected. Compared to Obama, women voters were not there for Hillary. In 2016, women made of 52% of voters. That is down from 53% in 2008 and 2012. Also, Hillary won 54% of women voters, but that is down from the 55 to 56% that Obama won. It must have been her past controversies that made women, as well as all voters, a little hesitant at the least to support her. The women voters make up the majority and they are out there, but Hillary did not do as well as Obama this time.

The under age 30 group, called the millenials or young voters, delivered Obama a strong victory twice. In 2016 young voters made up 19% of voters, which is consistent to the Obama elections. While Hillary did win the young voters (55%), it was not as much as Obama to guarantee an easy victory to Hillary. Obama won 60 to 66% of the young voters.

Democrats are going to keep pressing for the young voters if they want to win. Even more importantly, Democrats need to get the young voters they won to vote every year in non-Presidential elections, because the President is not all powerful. There are so many more federal, state, and local political seats out there.

The Democrats need to be more careful who they select as their nominee. I, along as many voters, was skeptical about Hillary Clinton because of her past controversies. Just because a woman is running for office does not guarantee victory with Democratic voters of women, minorities, and young voters. John McCain learned this the hard way in 2008 when he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. While Hillary Clinton is no boob like Sarah Palin, Hillary does have weaknesses and controversies.

If Bernie Sanders was running, I'm sure it would have been an easy victory for Bernie. Time to fire DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Shultz and get rid of the failed superdelegate system of the Democratic nominating process.

P.S. This is only the first of my 2016 election analysis. There is more to come over the next several days.

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Donald Trump is the 2016 President elect

It's 2:40am ET and Hillary Clinton has conceded via phone to Donald Trump. Donald Trump is the elected President. It's late and I have to go to work in several hours. I'll resume with my detailed political analysis of the 2016 election this Wednesday night.

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Election update 11:35pm ET

Donald Trump has won the critical battleground states of Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. This will be a very close race that will not be determined until Wednesday morning. Trump also has a realistic chance of winning Democratic states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and therefore winning the election.

Even though the most recent polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 3 to 5 points, and predicting Hillary to be the winner, I correctly withheld declaring Hillary the winner. After many years of experience analyzing the political arena, I told you this would be a very close race. More updates coming up.

Friday, November 04, 2016

Why Michelle Malkin Should Have A SH**TY Birthday

The Young Turks recently made a new video called "Why Michelle Malkin Should Have A SH**TY Birthday". Michelle Malkin's birthday was October 19 and she turned 46 years old. Malkin is a notorious, brown-skinned, right-wing racist who peaked around the years of 2005 to 2009. Since 2010 Malkin went on the decline in publicity, but she is still around.

Watch one of Malkin's original videos starting at 4:15 in the TYT YouTube video below and you will see for yourself why she is so pathetic and despised.

Tuesday, November 01, 2016

The Presidential Race, one week remaining

It's already just one week away until the U.S. elects a new President. I'll be covering my detailed political analysis of this massive election, including the Congressional elections, for the next few days after the election.

After the third and last Presidential debate on October 19, the polls, analysts, and pundits (watch the Saturday Night Live skits of the debates) were predicting Hillary Clinton would easily defeat Donald Trump. Trump had a series of bad news from women who claimed that he sexually harassed and abused them, and the infamous audio tape with Billy Bush revealed Trump's lewd attitude toward women.

However, I was one of the few to hold off on declaring Hillary Clinton the winner. She still had troubles with the 30,000+ emails she deleted from her private email server, and although the FBI announced they would close the investigation back in July, I knew 30,000+ emails were not going to magically disappear. Someone, and more than one person, must have received those deleted emails. Emails are meant to send to other people for communication, not just to be archived for only yourself.

And a late October surprise did bring bad news for Hillary's campaign. Three events damaged Hillary's camp and strengthened Donald's camp in in the last week of October to make it a virtually tie in the polls by November 1.

1) Projected price increases of ObamaCare of 25% or more in 2017.
2) WikiLeaks revealing Hillary's and her staff's emails.
3) The FBI reopening their criminal investigation on Hillary's email server, after some of her deleted emails were found on her closest aide's (Huma Abedin's) laptop computer.

I said that this would be most heated, controversial, and unpredictable Presidential race in U.S. history, and it will be a close race that will go to Election day. Stay tuned as the race gets even more heated.