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Thursday, November 10, 2016

2016 Election Analysis - Race, Gender, Age

The first area to analyze after an election are the three core demographics of the voters: race, gender, and age. Although Hillary Clinton narrowly won the popular vote by about 200,000 votes over Donald Trump, the electoral college declared Trump to be the winner by 310 to 228. Here are the 2016 CNN exit polls. The 2008 and 2012 exit polls and analyses below are being referenced for comparison.
2008 race
2008 gender and age
2012 race
2012 gender and age

The white voters definitely led Trump to his victory, but how much of an impact does the white vote have in 2016? In 2012, white voters made up 72% of voters and voted 59% for Romney, yet Romney lost big time. In 2016, white voters declined to 70% and voted 58% for Trump, yet Trump won. There were no hidden masses of white voters that came out in great numbers to vote for Trump in 2016. in fact, white voters were down in 2016. Trump's victory came as a result of the smaller minority voters turnout and voting rate.

The turnout of the largest and most loyal Democratic minority voters, Blacks, declined from 2012 to 2016. Black voters declined from 13% to 12%. Other minority voters, Latinos, Asians, and Others, saw a 1 point increase each, but being not as loyal to Democrats, that did not help much.

The other important factor in race was that minority voters who voted Democrat was down from the Obama elections of 2008 and 2012. It's not that Hillary lost out of minority voters, but minority voter rates who vote Democrat went back to their normal levels compared to Obama.

Even though white voter turnout was a little less, because more white voters live and vote in sparsely populated rural areas, it gave Trump an advantage in the electoral college. The Sailer Strategy of reaching out to only white voters is still dead in 2016. It's just that the Democrats need to keep reaching out to the growing minority voters effectively, and reach out to white voters as well. While Democrats are not going to win the majority of white voters, just winning 1 point more of the white vote will ensure an easy victory.

Hillary didn't quite do as well with the women voters as expected. Compared to Obama, women voters were not there for Hillary. In 2016, women made of 52% of voters. That is down from 53% in 2008 and 2012. Also, Hillary won 54% of women voters, but that is down from the 55 to 56% that Obama won. It must have been her past controversies that made women, as well as all voters, a little hesitant at the least to support her. The women voters make up the majority and they are out there, but Hillary did not do as well as Obama this time.

The under age 30 group, called the millenials or young voters, delivered Obama a strong victory twice. In 2016 young voters made up 19% of voters, which is consistent to the Obama elections. While Hillary did win the young voters (55%), it was not as much as Obama to guarantee an easy victory to Hillary. Obama won 60 to 66% of the young voters.

Democrats are going to keep pressing for the young voters if they want to win. Even more importantly, Democrats need to get the young voters they won to vote every year in non-Presidential elections, because the President is not all powerful. There are so many more federal, state, and local political seats out there.

The Democrats need to be more careful who they select as their nominee. I, along as many voters, was skeptical about Hillary Clinton because of her past controversies. Just because a woman is running for office does not guarantee victory with Democratic voters of women, minorities, and young voters. John McCain learned this the hard way in 2008 when he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. While Hillary Clinton is no boob like Sarah Palin, Hillary does have weaknesses and controversies.

If Bernie Sanders was running, I'm sure it would have been an easy victory for Bernie. Time to fire DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Shultz and get rid of the failed superdelegate system of the Democratic nominating process.

P.S. This is only the first of my 2016 election analysis. There is more to come over the next several days.


  • Seriously dude, you are a total moron AND a loser.

    Sailer'a strategy was exactly correct in pointing out that a Republican would need to win more White votes to win the electoral college, specifically white votes in the given states in contention.

    Although Trump did not win more White votes in total, he won over White votes in the exact areas where Sailer argued the Republicans needed them, and he lost White votes in places he didn't need them (such as Texas).

    By Blogger Unknown, at 8:59 AM  

  • You're the real idiot, loser. In 2012, Romney did better than Trump with the white vote. Romney won 59% of the white voters, who made up 72% of all voters. Romney was soundly defeated in the popular vote (47% to 51%) and electoral vote (206 to 332) to Obama.

    In 2016, Trump won 58% of the white voters, who declined to made up 70% of all voters. Though Trump lost the popular vote, he narrowly won enough votes across several battleground states to win the electoral college. Yes, trump did campaign smart and vigorously, but it was Hillary's failures (which I wrote about) that cost her the election.

    First, Hillary failed to reach out to the minority voters, which is against the Sailer strategy. If Hillary successfully abandoned the Sailer strategy and reached out to minority voters in the battleground states (not as much as Obama, but on average, like 90% black voters and 67% Latino voters), she would have won. Remember, Hillary was below average with minority voters (88% black voters and 65% Latino voters).

    Second, Hillary was a bad campaigner, which I pointed out several times. I also pointed out that Hillary was not the right choice to be the Democratic candidate because of her health problems. She hardly made any campaign rallies, if any, compared to Trump's diligent campaign rallies (up to 3 a day). If Hillary were healthy (like 12 years younger) and campaigned and reached out well, she could have not only won more minority voters, but several tens of thousands of white voters in battleground states to easily win the election.

    It was not Trump's policy of reaching out to white voters that led him to victory. It was Hillary's failure to reach out to minority voters, and failure to campaign and outreach effectively in battleground states that caused her to lose, and hand Trump a victory.

    By Blogger sailerfraud, at 7:39 PM  

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