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Saturday, November 12, 2016

Preliminary Election Results 2016

Here are the preliminary election results of 2016. These are not the final results because of recounts on close races, voter counting, and runoff elections. It won't be until December the final and official results are in.

Presidential Race
Donald Trump wins, has 290 electoral votes, compared to Hillary Clinton's 228 electoral votes, so far when 270 is needed to win. Another 20 electoral votes are being counted and Trump will win Michigan (16) and Hillary will win New Hampshire (4).

Senate Race
Republicans retain the majority in the Senate. They had 54 seats and after this election they have retained 51 seats so far for the majority. A senate race in Louisiana is going to the runoff election because in Louisiana, if a candidate does not win 50% of the vote in the election, a runoff election is necessary to determine the winner. This is biased toward the Republicans. During the 2014 U.S. Senate election in Louisiana, Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu won 42.0% to Republican challenger Bill Cassidy 41.0%. A runoff election was held where Bill Cassidy won the runoff election and the Senate seat, primarily because the African American and minority voter turnout was down considerably in the runoff election. Because of this biased structure, it looks like the Republicans will win the Louisiana Senate seat in the runoff election, for a total of 52 Senate seats.

This modest gain of two Senate seats for the Democrats is a disappointment, because the Democrats lost 9 Senate seats in 2014. There were 24 Republican senators running vs 10 Democrat senators in 2016 in a Presidential election. The Democrats should have easily picked up at least 5 Senate seats to gain the majority.

House Race
The House seat count before the election was 247 Republican to 188 Democrat. After the election, the count so far is 239 Republican to 192 Democrat with 4 seats being counted. With 2 of those seats in Louisiana heading to a runoff election, it looks like the Republicans have 241 seats in the House. The Democrats lost 13 House seats in 2014 and only made modest gains (up to 6 House seats) in 2016.

State Races
Minimal change

2016 was a bad year for the Democrats. Losing the main prize, the Presidency, and making modest gains in the House and Senate races, was a loss. The loss wasn't as bad as in 2014, and there is some good news (better than 2014 at least). I also feel it would be better for the Democratic party that Hillary Clinton did not win, because Democratic losses in Congress would be far worse in 2018 when 25 Democrat senators vs 8 Republican senators are running.

This requires a deep analysis and restructuring of the Democratic National Committee, their leadership, and their tactics. More analysis is coming up in the next few days.

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